Mortgage Rate Outlook — February 2026

Date: February 4, 2026 Staying informed about mortgage rate trends is essential for buyers, sellers, and homeowners planning their next move. Below is the latest mortgage rate outlook along with the key factors influencing today’s housing market. As of Wednesday, February 4, 2026, the current national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is around 6.09% to 6.22%, with some lenders offering rates just below 6%.

Key Factors Influencing Current Rates

Inflation

Inflation remains a primary driver of mortgage rates. As of January 2026, the U.S. inflation rate was reported around 2.7%. If inflation continues to moderate, it could support stable or slightly lower rates; an unexpected surge could push them higher.

Bond Market

Mortgage rates are closely linked to the yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds. Calmer bond markets in early 2026 have contributed to the current stabilization of rates.

Federal Reserve Policy

The Fed's actions and market expectations strongly influence mortgage rates, even though they don't set them directly. While the Fed has cut its benchmark rate in the past couple of years, those cuts have not always translated to proportional drops in long-term mortgage rates.

Housing Affordability

Stronger wage growth has started to outpace inflation, which helps improve affordability for buyers. This, combined with slightly improving inventory levels, is creating a more balanced market.

Outlook

Rates in 2026 are generally expected to remain steady, hovering in the 6% to 6.5% range, rather than falling dramatically. Most experts anticipate gradual movement, not a return to pre-pandemic lows.

For perspective, an email update dated October 9, 2025, noted that the 30-year fixed rate was near 7.1%, suggesting a slight decrease since that time. While Federal Reserve rate cuts can influence mortgage trends, the relationship is not always direct, as factors such as the bond market and inflation expectations also play crucial roles. For personalized guidance on buying, selling, or financing a home, contact Coldstone Real Estate Services today → Rates are for informational purposes only and may vary by lender, credit profile, and market conditions.